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Nobody Took the Chinese Buyers Seriously. Salomon Just Hit $2.5B.

Oct 13, 2026

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7 min read

Nobody Took the Chinese Buyers Seriously. Salomon Just Hit $2.5B.

Lemme is now the leading wellness brand at the largest beauty retailer in America, four years after launching as the Kardashian supplement line nobody took seriously. Graza sold six months of inventory in a single day in January 2022; it took the market until this month to put a $600M price on what that meant. Salomon's XT-6 was a 2013 ultramarathon shoe sitting in Paris concept stores by 2014, and when a Chinese consortium bought its parent in 2019, the consensus was "overpaid" and "sportswashing." Salomon just told investors it'll pass $2.5B this year. Michael Robinov did $1.4M in revenue three years running and nearly quit; the cohorts said stay. And Clio Snacks just did the exit venture-backed consumer brands supposedly can't do.

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Fitness Is the New Luxury. Nike Is the Last to Find Out.

Sep 24, 2026

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7 min read

Fitness Is the New Luxury. Nike Is the Last to Find Out.

Fitness became a luxury identity. This week is about who's monetizing it, and who lost it. CrossFit and HYROX sell the same thing to the same person: a hard workout that becomes who you are. One went for ~$200M, the other for ~$700M, and the gap is entirely structural. NOBULL, CrossFit's official shoe until the community fractured, is back at a $1B valuation under Mike Repole, having pivoted into nutrition and absorbed Tom Brady. Life Time, the $8B premium club operator, is now administering compounded peptides next to the lap pool and says it isn't waiting for the FDA. And Nike, the brand that owned athletic identity for forty years, announced a new board member the same day the stock hit a 12-year low: Alexandre Arnault. On the pod, Carlos Ventura built the anti-playbook meal delivery company, and it's profitable while the category lost $20B.

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Trip Isn't a CBD Brand. Blank Street Isn't a Coffee Shop. David Isn't Health Food.

Sep 17, 2026

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5 min read

Trip Isn't a CBD Brand. Blank Street Isn't a Coffee Shop. David Isn't Health Food.

The thesis you launch with is rarely the one that scales. This week, three brands that figured that out, and one founder who's figured it out twice. Trip launched in 2019 as a CBD drinks brand. It's now tracking $200M in revenue, and CBD is under 3% of sales, the business that Kendall Jenner just took equity in is a functional relaxation brand that happened to start with CBD. Blank Street launched on an espresso-automation efficiency thesis and got called "the WeWork of coffee." It just raised $105M at a ~$650M valuation, profitable, because it became an afternoon matcha ritual instead. And Peter Rahal built RXBAR on a "No B.S." ingredient label, sold it for $600M, then built David on macros where the ingredient list is beside the point, and it's now worth $2.25B. On the pod, David Born explains how licensing lets a $10M brand borrow fifty years of someone else's brand equity. And a live sell-side mandate at the bottom for the operators and acquirers on this list.

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Blackstone Is Holding the Bag. Sara Blakely Is Holding the Cash.

Sep 10, 2026

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6 min read

Blackstone Is Holding the Bag. Sara Blakely Is Holding the Cash.

In October 2021, Sara Blakely sold majority control of a business she'd bootstrapped for 21 years to Blackstone at $1.2B. This summer, that equity went to zero, quietly, in an out-of-court restructuring, while Skims walked off with the category. She's not alone on the right side of the turn this week. The Goodles founders, including the former president of Annie's, who'd run this exact play before, took seven share points off Kraft and sold to Barilla. Atorie raised to walk customers straight to the luxury factories, just as the houses' five-year pricing binge runs out of road. Meanwhile Headspace, valued at $3B the same month as the Spanx deal, is being sold for $200–300M as capital floods into a completely different wellness cohort. And Jordan Nathan at Caraway explains the operating discipline that keeps a brand from ever being the one holding the bag.

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Answer It Before the Market Does

Sep 2, 2026

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5 min read

Answer It Before the Market Does

L Catterton bought Birkenstock at ~$4.8B, IPO'd it at $8.6B, and has been selling ever since, $3B+ realized so far, the latest $1B block landing with the stock near an all-time low while the business posts record margins. On (Running) reported 21.6% growth and 65.4% gross margins and lost 22% of its value in a day because it chose full-price integrity over US wholesale volume. Shein went from a ~$100B private valuation to a $27B Hong Kong IPO because the margin nobody interrogated turned out to be a tariff exemption. And bottled water, America's #1 beverage by volume, has now run five successive brand playbooks on a product that's basically never changed. Joe Welstead's question on this week's pod ties it all together: why should people care?

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Branding Is What You Say. Brand Is What You Are.

Aug 19, 2026

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6 min read

Branding Is What You Say. Brand Is What You Are.

In the span of 24 hours, Alex Cooper's holding company raised its first outside money at a $500M valuation and shut down its beverage brand. The best branding in podcasting couldn't save a drink without retention, while the business underneath commanded institutional capital the very same day. Béis sold to Samsonite for $210M because behind Shay Mitchell's face sat a profitable $210M-revenue business. Ferrero spent $3.3B buying both ends of the cereal K-curve on fundamentals, not narrative. And one in five American households now has someone on a GLP-1, a substance-level behavior change quietly rewriting demand across every category, no matter what any brand says about itself.

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The Machine Beats the Moment

Aug 13, 2026

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6 min read

The Machine Beats the Moment

Ben Bennett has quietly produced three beauty exits worth ~$900M by running the same machine three times. GAP is out-executing the most viral denim campaign of the decade with a collab cadence that never makes headlines. Reformation just gave apparel its first real comp in years, earned through twenty consecutive quarters of double-digit growth. Joe Parenteau holds Fable's standard by killing 30% of supplier relationships after the money is already spent. And premium running is monetizing identity on repeat, Bandit charges $125 a year just for the right to buy.

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Judged Too Early

Aug 3, 2026

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5 min read

Judged Too Early

Smash Foods had a great product trapped in a format that couldn't scale until a form factor pivot tripled the business. Vita Coco IPO'd below range in 2021 while the market concluded coconut water was finished. It's up 5.5x since and just made its first major acquisition. Oatly fell 95% and burned $1.4B before engineering its way to a first profitable year. And Sahand Dilmaghani was recording conversations with strangers and carrying espresso machines door to door across New York. That turned out to be the foundation of his business.

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The Middle Is Gone. Pick Your Extreme.

Jul 22, 2026

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6 min read

The Middle Is Gone. Pick Your Extreme.

If you follow me on LinkedIn, you saw the headlines this week: a busted COVID SPAC that became a $200M supplements brand, Chanel buying a 187-year-old shirtmaker, Onitsuka Tiger going independent. The newsletter is where I get to go a layer deeper. Consumer in 2026 is punishing the middle and rewarding the extremes. Maximum speed or maximum restraint. Total scale or total craft. The businesses in this issue picked a lane and built everything around it. The McKinsey data at the end shows what's happening to everyone who didn't.

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The Expert-Led Brand Era

Jul 14, 2026

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6 min read

The Expert-Led Brand Era

Dr. Muneeb Shah spent five years building 20 million followers by debunking skincare misinformation before Remedy existed. Mara Roszak spent twenty years styling Emma Stone, Natalie Portman, and Nicole Kidman at the highest-stakes events on earth before Rōz had a single SKU. Reformed didn't invent a new consumer behavior, it borrowed the credibility of a morning ritual 200 million Americans already trust and upgraded what's inside it. And Kieran Mathew sent 25–30 cold emails to a founder he'd never met because he found a product built on genuine ingredient credibility and recognized it was worth joining rather than competing with.

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What If the Consumer Has Already Decided?

Jul 8, 2026

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5 min read

What If the Consumer Has Already Decided?

Danone paid $1.5B for an Australian protein smoothie and $1.2B for a UK meal replacement brand in 90 days, not for the products, but for the consumer relationships those products had already earned. Khloud is outperforming LesserEvil's Target velocity on an audience Khloé spent twenty years building before a popcorn bag existed. A Greek egg white drink with better macros than anything on the US market is blocked from American shelves by a regulatory technicality (the consumer trust is already there, the format isn't). Michael Rolland got Yough! into Target because sell-through data told the buyer what a pitch deck never could. And Balenciaga just joined Substack because they're paying for the trust a reader already extended to a writer, and no programmatic ad unit can buy that.

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The Real Opportunity Is Never the One in the Headline

Jun 30, 2026

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5 min read

The Real Opportunity Is Never the One in the Headline

CHAMP's $50M investment in Rhoback reads like an apparel funding story. It's actually a bet on athlete ownership as a distribution engine. L Catterton's ~€1B HYROX talks read like a fitness events story. It's actually a bet on the status symbol that money alone can't buy. Steph Curry's $400M Li Ning deal reads like a US retail expansion. It's actually a bet on becoming Jordan Brand for 1.4 billion people. Morgan's second consumer brand reads like a founder repeating a formula. It's actually a master class in knowing what's not worth doing again. And the GLP-1 story everyone's been telling is about weight loss. The real story is about to be a global whey protein supply shock. In every case this week, the headline number is the least interesting part of the story.

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In The Money: eCommerce, DTC and CPG

In The Money: eCommerce, DTC and CPG


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