From Golden Goose to Tariffs: What Actually Compounds

Luxury isn’t growth. It’s infrastructure.

With HSG (formerly Sequoia Capital China) acquiring Golden Goose for $2.9B, it’s worth revisiting how systematically this asset has been scaled.

A quick capital history:

• 2000 – Founded in Venice, Italy

• 2015 – Ergon Capital acquires for ~$130M (~$13M EBITDA)

• 2017 – Carlyle buys in at ~$500M (~$155M revenue)

• 2020 – Permira acquires for ~$1.5B (~$290M revenue, ~$90M EBITDA)

• 2024 – Planned IPO (later pulled) at ~$3.3B (~$600M revenue, ~$145M EBITDA)

• 2025 – HSG buying majority, Temasek participating at $2.9B (~$750M revenue, ~$185M EBITDA)

What stands out isn’t just growth—it’s quality of growth:

• Revenue ~4× from 2017 → 2025

• EBITDA scaled while maintaining luxury margins

• ASP discipline held despite scale

• No SKU sprawl. No discount-led growth.

This isn’t fashion volatility. It’s luxury infrastructure.

Each owner underwrote a clean next leg:

• Ergon proved the concept

• Carlyle scaled distribution

• Permira industrialized margins + global expansion

• HSG steps into a mature, global luxury cash engine

2/ Vacation sunscreen didn’t beat incumbents. It out-tasted them.

Sun care is supposed to be boring, regulated, and run by incumbents.
Vacation sunscreen didn’t get the memo.

In under four years, Vacation scaled to ~$80M revenue, ~100% YoY growth, and is now exploring a sale with Raymond James.

Context:

• Launched DTC in 2021 with a single hero product

• ~$11.2M raised to date (incl. $6M Series A led by Silas Capital)

• Now profitable, projected to double again

• ~1.2% U.S. sunscreen share (#13 nationally)

• Distribution across Ulta, Target, CVS, Nordstrom, Erewhon, Costco

What’s interesting isn’t the formula, it’s the restraint.

Vacation didn’t win by:

• Out-clinical-ing dermatologists

• Racing to SPF innovation

• Chasing influencer arbitrage

It won by doing something harder to copy:

• A rigorously applied POV

• Transportive scent as a core product feature

• World-building rooted in escapism, leisure, Americana

• Tone discipline across packaging, retail, merch, collabs

In a category dominated by Coppertone, Banana Boat, and Neutrogena,
Vacation proved that taste still scales.

Costco isn’t suing to win. It’s suing to preserve optionality.

Is Costco taking the Trump administration to the Supreme Court?

What’s actually happening:
Costco filed suit in the U.S. Court of International Trade challenging tariffs imposed under a self-declared national emergency. It openly acknowledges the ultimate ruling likely sits with the Supreme Court of the United States.

Why this matters:

• At Costco’s scale, tariff exposure is massive

• Even a low-probability Supreme Court win is worth protecting

• Smaller importers don’t get this option—once they pay, they’re done

The takeaway:
Costco isn’t trying to change policy today.
It’s making sure that if the tariffs are overturned later, it gets its money back.

This is balance-sheet strategy masquerading as litigation.

🎙 Podcast Highlight: Early-stage investing isn’t about certainty. It’s about edge.

My biggest takeaway from my conversation with Lori Wood Cashman of Visible Ventures:

Early-stage investing is about pattern recognition, founder advantage, and knowing where the blind spots are.

A few things that stood out:

1. Founder–market fit isn’t one thing
It’s not just “you lived the problem.”
It can be scientific edge, technical depth, obsession, or earned credibility.
The real question: why does this founder uniquely win here?

2. The best diligence names weaknesses early
Visible underwrites blind spots upfront so they can scaffold, coach, and build trust—rather than be surprised later.

3. Data and intuition aren’t opposites
At Seed / A, data is incomplete by definition.
So diligence looks like: using the product, talking to customers, understanding retention, pressure-testing the full journey—not just CAC.

4. Demographics are the real moat
Visible is underwriting structural shifts:
wealth moving to women + Gen Z, labor pressure, health and longevity, financial literacy, upward mobility.

5. Retention changes the risk profile
Brands that obsess over retention early de-risk growth later.
That’s when you earn the right to step on the gas.

The lesson:
You don’t need perfect metrics.
You need a real edge, self-awareness about your gaps, and discipline around cash, customers, and category.

🎧 Watch on YouTube, listen on Spotify.

Thanks to sponsors:  
⚙️ Visit Richpanel - AI powered customer service for eCommerce at richpanel.com
🧾 Check out Numeral - stay compliant and automate away sales tax
✈️ Go to Passport - for international shipping, compliance and localization

That’s it for this week.
If you liked this issue, forward to a friend who obsesses over brand strategy, capital flows, or exit timing.

In the Money – following the flow of capital in consumer

P.S. We love talking to brands interested in exiting in the next 3-18 months. If you know of any brands interested in exiting, or any firms trying to help port cos manage turnarounds, we'd love to share a POV.

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