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LogoIn The Money: eCommerce, DTC and CPG
Oliver Buchannon
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The Market Prices Things for Death Too Early

Jun 12, 2026

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6 min read

The Market Prices Things for Death Too Early

The DTC mattress category was declared dead: Koala just listed on the ASX at A$332M in revenue and A$12.3M in net profit. Miss Mouth's Messy Eater survived a Thrasio bankruptcy and sold to Church & Dwight for $325M: a 30x return on the original acquisition price. Tillys was being priced for mall-retail extinction at ~$135M market cap against $550M+ in revenue: then posted its first profitable quarter since 2021 and the stock surged 60% in a session. And a flour mill built in 1890 that survived the Dust Bowl, two World Wars, and every diet fad of the last century finally closed: but the miller behind it is pivoting into functional ingredients rather than dying quietly.

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Better Keeps Moving. The Brands That Win Move With It.

Jun 3, 2026

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6 min read

Better Keeps Moving. The Brands That Win Move With It.

Brami looked at the low-carb orthodoxy that defined American diet culture for a generation and recognized it had the Mediterranean paradox completely backwards, then built the fastest-growing national pasta brand in America on two ingredients. Proper Wild looked at a $1B energy shot category that hasn't changed since 2004 and saw the last major CPG category where clean-label disruption hasn't arrived yet. Banagua put cans next to bananas in the produce section and skipped the beverage aisle entirely. Stephen Vlahos's COVID shutdown forced him out of hospitality and into bag-in-box wine, the format his friends called a mistake turned out to be the whole strategy. And Beyond Meat is the cautionary tale: the brand that defined "better" for a generation and got stranded when the definition moved. The consumer didn't stop caring about what they put in their body. They changed their mind about what better means.

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The Founder IS the Distribution Channel

May 27, 2026

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5 min read

The Founder IS the Distribution Channel

The old model: build the product, find the audience. The new model: build the audience, then the product finds its way to market. 4AM's founders built 230,000 followers across TikTok and Instagram before they had a retail shelf, then walked into Target with four sold-out production runs as proof. Neutonic exists because Chris Williamson and James Smith spent a decade building audiences that trust them on exactly the topics the product is designed for. George Clooney and Rande Gerber don't need to pitch a distributor, Casamigos made the introduction for them. Jason Burke spent ten years becoming the person that store managers would answer the phone for. And the cabbage trend is being built on TikTok by dietitians who don't have a product to sell, yet.

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Edge is Recognizing the Misread Before Everyone Else.

May 20, 2026

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6 min read

Edge is Recognizing the Misread Before Everyone Else.

Everlane was priced as the future of retail for a decade, until it wasn't, and the equity went to zero. L Catterton looked at a public market that was pricing Thorne like a commodity vitamin company and paid a 94% premium on the misread, now exploring a $4B exit in under three years. Maya Smith built in a category the industry called niche for fifteen years, until VMG looked at $7.3M in EBITDA and recognized it wasn't niche at all. A corporate VC explains why patient capital, with no LP clock forcing the exit, is the structural advantage most founders never think to look for. And the men's makeup category has been unlocking for five years with no dominant brand to show for it yet. The pattern: the market misprices things constantly. The businesses worth studying are the ones built by people who saw the correction coming.

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Domain Authority Is the New Moat

May 11, 2026

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7 min read

Domain Authority Is the New Moat

LMNT locked in Huberman, Attia, and Rogan in 2021 when their audiences were a fraction of today's size, the cost to replicate that strategy now is 10–20x higher. Bathhouse is raising $41M to build the physical infrastructure for a category that Huberman spent four years educating millions of people about for free. MOSH is backed by two decades of Maria Shriver's Alzheimer's advocacy before a single bar was sold. Sam Coxe set a 10x margin rule before she had a product, survived 145% tariffs without blinking, and built $4M revenue per employee. And Brunello Cucinelli is growing 20% in the Americas while logo luxury retreat, because their customer was never buying a trend.

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The Fifty-Year Overnight Success

May 4, 2026

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6 min read

The Fifty-Year Overnight Success

A 17-year-old borrows money from his football coach to buy a sub shop. Fifty years later, Blackstone pays $8B and files for a $12B IPO. A burned-out Wall Street banker buys a failing snack brand for $250K and sells to Hershey for $750M thirteen years later. A 22-year-old college dropout buys a roadside jerky stand on a $150K loan, apprentices under an 80-year-old butcher, and is now tracking toward $1B+ in revenue. A 253-year-old watchmaker gets revived by a father and son, the greatest living independent watchmaker, and a movie star who was already buying the watches before anyone offered him a deal. And a working capital lender explains why cash is the silent variable that kills good brands before they get enough time to become great ones.

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Capital Structure as Competitive Advantage

Apr 27, 2026

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7 min read

Capital Structure as Competitive Advantage

How you finance the business is increasingly as important as what the business does. Nexus Capital is using preferred equity and sub-1x revenue acquisitions to control $161M of revenue inside a public vehicle the market values at $30M. Tory Burch is paying $60M+ a year in interest to avoid becoming the next Kate Spade. Mei Lin Ng built a hardware company on a software budget by treating pre-orders as a three-year proof-of-demand mechanism. And the honey market is heading into a supply shock that most brands haven't priced into their COGS yet. The product still has to work. But the founders and operators winning right now are the ones who figured out that capital structure isn't just a financing decision, it's a strategic one.

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The Gap the Winner Left Behind

Apr 20, 2026

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5 min read

The Gap the Winner Left Behind

Every dominant brand creates the conditions for the next one. Liquid I.V. won hydration and left women underserved. The beauty industry spent decades selling fix-it products and never asked what was causing the problem. Poppi and Olipop built $4B of brand value educating consumers about fiber, and deliver a fraction of what the body actually needs. And Atlas built a $1B credit card by ignoring the 280 million Americans that every other card company is fighting over. The pattern: the winner defines the category. The gap they leave behind is where the next brand gets built. This week's stories are all versions of the same move, finding what the market leader couldn't see, wouldn't serve, or didn't think was worth the effort.

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The Edge Is Pattern Recognition

Apr 13, 2026

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9 min read

The Edge Is Pattern Recognition

The best moves in consumer right now aren't being invented. They're being recognized. This week: a VC-turned-founder who studied acquirers before building a product, then sold to exactly the buyer he designed for in 32 months. A pet retailer that recognized it couldn't build clinical trust internally and paid $125M to buy it. A coffee chain that recognized an Asian model a decade before Western incumbents did, and is now worth $1B. And a custom shirt founder who recognized his real business model at a flea market, after the original plan quietly failed. Four different categories. Four founders and operators who won not because they invented something new, but because they saw something others missed, and moved before anyone else caught up.

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Capital Discipline Is the Strategy

Apr 6, 2026

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7 min read

Capital Discipline Is the Strategy

This week: a brand that raised $550M+ and sold for less than the value of its remaining inventory. A category leader that took one check in 2020 and just exited for an estimated $350M. A fragrance-led deodorant brand built on almost no institutional capital that sold for $500M+. And a former Target merchant who has watched every version of the retail capital story go wrong, and built a firm to fix it. Three exits, three completely different capital histories, and the pattern is hard to ignore: the brands that raised the least, relative to what they built, returned the most. Capital discipline wasn't what these founders settled for. It was the decision that determined everything downstream.

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The Story Is Not the Asset

Mar 30, 2026

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8 min read

The Story Is Not the Asset

Every week the market pays up for a narrative. Every week it finds out what's actually underneath. This week: a $1.15B DTC exit where the acquirer explicitly paid for the subscription engine, not the brand story. Two San Francisco basics companies that launched with identical pitches, one built a manifesto, one built a machine. A bond-building hair care company that traded its most valuable asset, exclusivity, for distribution revenue, and couldn't get it back. And a pet health founder who scrapped his original product entirely because he cared more about the mission than the idea.The pattern across all four: the market keeps confusing the story for the asset. The founders and acquirers who get it right are the ones who know the difference.

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Dynasty Thinking: How the Best Consumer Businesses Are Really Built

Mar 23, 2026

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8 min read

Dynasty Thinking: How the Best Consumer Businesses Are Really Built

The brands worth studying aren't optimized for the next raise. They're optimized for the next generation. This week I've been in Paris, and the city keeps teaching the same lesson. A cutlery store with a line out the door selling forks at €100 a set. Four design-led brands quietly building €30M–€250M businesses from candles, bags, ceramics, and perfume. Bernard Arnault spending €400M of his own money to lock his family into a $330B empire until 2052. And a European growth investor who argues the best founders on this continent build like they'll never raise again, because often, they won't. Dynasty thinking isn't about size. It's about the decision-making frame. When your horizon is 30 years, not 3, almost everything changes: what you build, how you price, who you sell to, whether you raise at all.

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One Thing Done Right Beats a Hundred Things Done Okay

Mar 16, 2026

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7 min read

One Thing Done Right Beats a Hundred Things Done Okay

This week: a pimple patch brand that raised $105M after spending less than $20M building to $110M in revenue. Two outdoor lifestyle companies with the same customer and vastly different market caps. A beauty brand that earned a software multiple, and lost it when the growth curve bent. And a cashmere founder who spent a decade proving that one great product is a better business than ten average ones. The through-line isn't capital efficiency or brand strategy or market timing. It's simpler: the brands that win pick one thing and go deeper than anyone else is willing to go.

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The New Energy Playbook: Science, Equity, and Shelf

Mar 9, 2026

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7 min read

The New Energy Playbook: Science, Equity, and Shelf

This week: an energy drink that recruited Kim Kardashian as a Co-Founder before spending a dollar on marketing. A former BODYARMOR exec running the playbook he helped write, this time in RTD coffee. A $10B Chinese coffee machine quietly buying the world's most prestigious café brand. And a global consumer investor explaining why the best-built brands often come from the markets you're not watching.

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Revenue Is a Lie. Structure Is Everything.

Mar 2, 2026

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7 min read

Revenue Is a Lie. Structure Is Everything.

A $45M raise that's mostly secondary. A $300M platform sold for $12.75M. A coconut water brand hiring the guy who scaled Liquid I.V. And a seed investor explaining why "revenue" is the most misleading number in your deck. The common thread: top-line growth has almost nothing to do with value creation. Structure does. Margin does. Capital stack does. Hiring does. Let's get into it.

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The Brands Winning in 2026 Aren’t Louder. They’re Better Distributed.

Feb 23, 2026

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4 min read

The Brands Winning in 2026 Aren’t Louder. They’re Better Distributed.

For years, consumer growth meant paid social, influencer scale, DTC velocity. That era is over. The brands raising capital and clearing exits right now have something more durable - they’ve unlocked new distribution rails. This week’s stories; THC beverages, Asian pantry, telehealth, and umbrellas, all point to the same shift. Control the rails. Or build new ones.

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The Capital Window Is Open, But It’s Ruthless

Feb 16, 2026

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4 min read

The Capital Window Is Open, But It’s Ruthless

Hero, Ollie, Once Upon a Farm, and Freestyle show what actually clears in 2026. For 18 months, the narrative in consumer has been: Strategics only want $1B platforms, The IPO market is dead, DTC multiples are gone. This week’s deals say something different. A “boring” conglomerate quietly compounded a 5.5x revenue acquisition into a category leader. A $600M pet food exit cleared in a compressed DTC market. A refrigerated baby food company popped 17% on IPO. A diaper startup won Walmart not with story, but with performance. Capital is back. But it’s backing something very specific.

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From Digestive Health to Chickens: What Gets Funded Now

Feb 9, 2026

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5 min read

From Digestive Health to Chickens: What Gets Funded Now

Wonderbelly, Ultra, NOBULL, and a chicken company, show the new bar for capital.For the last 18 months, the narrative in consumer has been simple:strategics only care about $1B+ platforms.Sub-$100M brands? Nice businesses. Not needle-movers.This week broke that narrative.A digestive startup exited for nine figures at ~$25M revenue.A supplement brand raised on a format shift, not a new ingredient.A “CrossFit shoe company” re-emerged as a $1B wellness platform.And a chicken feed company is quietly building one of the stickiest pet businesses in America.

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What Actually Gets Funded in Consumer Right Now

Feb 2, 2026

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5 min read

What Actually Gets Funded in Consumer Right Now

Non-alcoholic beer, “clean” water, hormone-aware supplements and the real bar investors are setting.The funding window in consumer isn’t closed, but it’s narrow, opinionated, and unforgiving.Capital is flowing to brands that do one thing exceptionally well, can explain why they exist in one sentence, and show early signs of pricing power, margin literacy, and cultural relevance, not just growth curves.This week’s stories all point to the same reality:Premium non-alcoholic beer raised at a $100M+ valuationA water brand raised on lab reports, not vibesA supplement startup raised by reframing pills as protocolsAnd a fund manager explained why “niche” can now mean $200M+ businessesThis issue is about what actually gets funded in consumer right now, and what doesn’t.

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What Paris Reveals About Durable Consumer Brands

Jan 26, 2026

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5 min read

What Paris Reveals About Durable Consumer Brands

From fragrance to fashion to furniture, Paris reveals how durable consumer brands are actually built.I’m in Paris this week, and it’s impossible not to notice something.The most impressive consumer brands here aren’t chasing growth optics. They’re underwriting durability, margin, pricing power, and global portability, often through moves that look irrational if you only model store-level ROI.A minority stake in a Paris perfume house.A fashion brand handing out tea and cookies instead of discounts.A $100M retail “store” that makes no sense on a spreadsheet.These aren’t indulgences. They’re strategy.This week’s issue is about what Paris reveals about how real consumer brands compound, and why the most durable growth often looks slow, expensive, or inefficient right up until it isn’t.

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When Some $100m Brands Become $1B Platforms, and Others Break

Jan 19, 2026

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4 min read

When Some $100m Brands Become $1B Platforms, and Others Break

From Unilever’s Liquid I.V. bet to Food52’s Chapter 11, this week shows the difference between revenue growth and real durability.

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Balance Sheets First, Growth Later

Jan 12, 2026

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5 min read

Balance Sheets First, Growth Later

What Laird + Navitas, ABH’s recap, and a Flux episode reveal about where real value is.

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From Golden Goose to Tariffs: What Actually Compounds

Jan 5, 2026

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5 min read

From Golden Goose to Tariffs: What Actually Compounds

Golden Goose at $2.9B, Vacation’s $80M sprint, Costco’s tariff hedge, and early-stage pattern recognition.

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Function is beating lifestyle again

Dec 29, 2025

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4 min read

Function is beating lifestyle again

Fertility roll-ups, protein milk, medical skincare - and why systems win

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Starbucks didn’t fix sales. It fixed behavior.

Dec 22, 2025

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5 min read

Starbucks didn’t fix sales. It fixed behavior.

Scarcity, tariffs, and why K-beauty’s first M&A wave just got repriced.

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In The Money: eCommerce, DTC and CPG

In The Money: eCommerce, DTC and CPG


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